STORY-TRÅD·kultur

Heat waves still neglected in Brazil, says researcher

Heat waves remain a “completely neglected” disaster in Brazil and may become more frequent and intense following the arrival of a new El Niño. The warning comes from Renata Libonati, a professor in the Department of Meteorology at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), who is also a member of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Committee of Experts on Climate Monitoring. Based on data from Brazil’s national health care network – the SUS – covering 14 metropolitan regions across the country, the researcher states that 50,000 deaths caused by heat waves were identified from 2000 to 2020. Despite this significant number, the problem still does not receive the attention it deserves, she argues. Notícias relacionadas:Effects of climate emergency on the ocean worry researchers.Brazil to see up to 127 days of extreme heat per year by 2075."That number is 20 times higher than the number of deaths from landslides during the same period. This means that heat waves are still a completely neglected disaster in our country. They don’t have the same impact as other types of tragedies, where deaths are immediate. We’re used to thinking that, because we live in a tropical country, we’re accustomed to the heat. That’s not true,” Professor Libonati said. The statement was made during the panel discussion What to Expect from El Niño, held this week at Rio’s Museum of Tomorrow. Also participating were researchers Paulo Artaxo, from the University of São Paulo (USP), and José Marengo, from the National Center for Monitoring and Alerts on Natural Disasters (Cemaden). The climate phenomenon, which alters wind patterns and weather across the planet, is expected to bring exceptionally high temperatures in 2026, the experts said. In addition to the health impacts, Professor Libonati presented data linking El Niño to heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. She believes the phenomenon may contribute to the combination of these events, creating conditions that facilitate the spread of wildfires. “Over the past 40 years, high fire danger conditions have increased by about 18 percent during El Niño years in [Brazil’s] North, Northeast, and Central-West regions. We are facing a context of climate change with a stronger link between drought, wildfires, and heat waves,” she said. Impacts vary between regions José Marengo, of Cemaden, noted that the effects of El Niño will not be the same across Brazil. In the South, the phenomenon is usually associated with increased rainfall and, consequently, a higher risk of flooding. In the country’s North and Northeast, the trend is toward reduced rainfall and an increased risk of drought. In the Central-West, there may be a delay in the start of the rainy season and more heat waves. In the Southeast, high temperatures and more erratic rainfall are expected. “El Niño doesn’t create problems. It exacerbates existing problems,” he summarized. He went on to point out that the effects of the phenomenon extend beyond meteorology and can affect food production, transportation, energy supply, and the economy. “We don’t view El Niño merely as a climatic phenomenon that warms the waters of the Pacific Ocean. It is a climatic shock that affects all these sectors and, therefore, has an impact on everyone’s lives,” he said. Preparation Paulo Artaxo contributed to the last three reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations’ leading global scientific body. According to the researcher, Brazil needs to speed up its adaptation to a climate that is already experiencing higher temperatures and more frequent extreme events. The country has already recorded an average temperature increase of nearly 2 °C, which is above the global average. In Artaxo’s view, past experiences with disasters should have served as a lesson for municipal, state, and federal governments. “We need to be better prepared for the arrival of the next El Niño, so as not to repeat the suffering we experienced in 2024,” he said. He also argued that climate adaptation processes in cities must take social inequalities into account, because the effects of extreme events do not affect the population uniformly. “These phenomena primarily affect the most vulnerable – the poorest,” he declared. Vulnerability is linked, among other factors, to unequal access to health care, housing conditions, exposure to the outdoors, and the ability to use cooling systems. The researcher cited the difference between people who can use air conditioning during periods of extreme heat and favela residents living in homes with zinc roofs, who may remain exposed to high temperatures at night. “It is our responsibility to take steps to minimize this harm to the population,” said Artaxo. “Brazil is the ninth-largest economy in the world. We are not a poor country. We neither need nor can we endure the problems we have been facing due to a lack of a climate adaptation strategy.”